Thursday night NFL best bets: Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
ESPN INSIDERWeek 14 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with two teams trying to stay in the playoff hunt.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, fresh off an upset of the Baltimore Ravens, head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, who are coming off a loss to the previously winless Detroit Lions.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (38-35-1, 2-3 last week), Doug Kezirian (13-23-2, 0-2), Tyler Fulghum (15-23, 6-0) and Anita Marks (202-185, 16-10), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (26-26-1, 2-2), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 51-44 (2-2), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (41-35, 3-3) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (100-93, 8-6) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5)
Fortenbaugh: Minnesota enters Thursday night's showdown with a litany of ailments on offense, notably running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder), wide receiver Adam Thielen (high ankle sprain) and offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw (ankle). While none of those three have been ruled out as of the time of this writing, none are anywhere near 100% healthy, either. Further, Minnesota's defense packs a much tougher punch when playing within the hostile confines of U.S. Bank Stadium, where the team is permitting an average of just 19.8 points per game this season as opposed to 29.4 points per game on the road. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 21st in the NFL in scoring (20.3 PPG) and 27th in yards per play (5.0), not to mention the fact that the under is an astounding 37-13-1 in the team's past 51 road games. Additionally, take note that the under is 11-2 in the NFL's past 13 Thursday games.Pick: Under 43.5
Moody: Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive games, averaging 280 passing yards per game, and now faces a Steelers defense that has allowed 246 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game over the past five games to Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff and Justin Fields. Having offensive playmakers at his disposal, Cousins is in great position to exceed those per-game averages against a Steelers defense that ranks 31st in pass rush win rate.
Last week against the Lions, Justin Jefferson matched his season high in targets (14) and set a career high in receiving yards (182). This week, with Thielen likely out because of an ankle injury, his statistical floor will be even higher. Jefferson averaged nine targets and 93.4 receiving yards per game prior to this game. Considering the fact that he has a significant advantage over the Steelers' cornerbacks in terms of route running and separation, Minnesota, which has passed on 58% of downs this season, should heavily rely on him. Cameron Sutton, Arthur Maulet and Ahkello Witherspoon will be busy on Thursday night.
Despite playing only 63% of the offensive snaps last week against the Ravens, Steelers wideout Chase Claypool caught two of three targets for 52 receiving yards. It was concerning because he played over 90% of the snaps in Weeks 11 and 12 as he recovered from a severe case of turf toe. However, Claypool was a full participant in Tuesday's practice, which bodes well for his performance on Thursday night against the Vikings' 24th-ranked pass defense. Considering the cornerbacks he'll be matched up with, he has a good chance to surpass his projections here.
Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has scored five touchdowns and averaged 6.2 targets over his past six games. Tyler Higbee (16) is the only tight end with more red zone targets than Freiermuth (15). Given the rapport between Ben Roethlisberger and Freiermuth, who have lockers next to each other, the rookie has a good chance of scoring against the Vikings.
Picks: Cousins over 252.5 passing yards (-115), Cousins over 1.5 TD passes (-120), Jefferson over 92.5 receiving yards (-115), Claypool over 51.5 receiving yards (-115), Freiermuth scores TD (+205)
Marks: Cousins has really struggled under pressure (dropping from 8.4 YPA to 5.5 YPA in a pressured pocket), so the loss of Darrisaw for an offensive line that will have to face a Watt brother (T.J.) this week is frightening. Big Ben will continue his aerial farewell tour on Thursday night (he passes 33% of the time on first down), and look for him to not only target favorite receiver Diontae Johnson a gazillion times, but Ray-Ray McCloud has now leapfrogged James Washington on the wide receiver food chain. Joe Haden is not expected to play, which opens the door for Jefferson to have a big night, especially with no Thielen. The one strength the Vikings' defense does possess is excellent cover linebackers, so Freiermuth should have a pedestrian night in the passing game.
Picks: Steelers +9 in 6-point teaser with Chargers (-4.5), Roethlisberger over 22.5 completions (-120), Jefferson over 92.5 receiving yards (-115), Freiermuth under 35.5 receiving yards (-115), Johnson over 6.5 receptions (-125), McCloud over 13.5 receiving yards (-120)
Walder: I think Jefferson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but sometimes a number is just too high. Jefferson's expected receiving yards per game -- based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats on his targets -- has been 80.7. It's an awfully impressive amount of volume, but it's not one that suggests a median result of 93 yards or more. Give me the under.
And wow does D.J. Wonnum's sack line stand out to me. Wonnum is one of the least dangerous edge rushers in the league, ranking 47th out of 52 qualifiers at edge in pass rush win rate this season. I'm betting this line (-167), saying he has only a 62.5 pct change to not get a sack is heavily influenced by recency: Wonnum has played more of late and has a sack in each of his last two games. But we're still talking about a player who has just three sacks on the season. Though the Steelers offensive line is porous, Roethlisberger gets rid of the ball so quickly that he still is only sacked at a league average rate.
Picks: Jefferson under 92.5 receiving yards (-115) and Wonnum under 0.5 sacks (-167 at SugarHouse)
